Recently, the RMB exchange rate to new high, the dollar/yuan has gradually approaching the 6.15 mark. Due to a large number of imported raw materials and equipment, the news of the continued appreciation in the yuan in the near future to pulp and paper industry must be good, is expected to reduce the cost of enterprise. Since this year, the dollar against the yuan central parity rate has dropped to 1%, by this boost, paper plate index is up 12.6% this year, compared with the csi 300 index fell 2.5%. But it is thought that the industry is still in the recovery period, considering the factors, domestic currency depreciation alone cost advantage difficult to assess the performance of the papermaking enterprises constitute absolute support. From product perspective, newsprint overall is still in the excess capacity in the future, and wrapping paper and life kind of paper enterprises are facing market environment is relatively good.

The "double-edged sword" effect is obvious

Up to now, the dollar against the yuan has gradually close to 6.15, the recent yuan each trading day in the record high since the revaluation. Because need a lot of equipment and raw materials imported from abroad, the RMB exchange rate higher will directly drives the domestic papermaking enterprises cost reduction. This or to hedge the papermaking enterprises in recent years has been facing serious fundamentals. Viewed from the medium industry level, our country paper industry development situation overall downturn last year, serious overcapacity problem. Because about seventy percent of the raw material need to rely on imports, and requires a lot of papermaking equipment procurement from abroad, companies also have different levels of debt. A strengthening yuan is expected to be in these three aspects to improve the papermaking enterprise's performance.

There is a market that China's economy for decades in the rise, along with the economy strength of ascension, the country's currency will appreciate. China's current participation in global trade is more and more high, the trade scale is more and more big, the social development and stability, longer term, the yuan in the later will remain steady appreciation of the situation. Viewed from the technical level, the yuan is now in the rapid appreciation of the stage. The papermaking enterprises purchasing cost is still expected to further reduce in the future.

But the people also believe that the current domestic currency super hair problem in the long run will hedge the papermaking enterprise's cost advantage. The overall environment on papermaking enterprises is still a "double-edged sword". In recent years, China's GDP growth between 7% and 12%, while the M2 growth has been higher than GDP growth, monetary phenomenon more serious. The yuan's current situation is outside appreciation and inside depreciation, under the sandwiched between the competitiveness of the enterprises in our country have been severely weakened. The continuing decline of the yuan internal will lead to the rising cost of living, the rising cost of living will lead to the rise in wages, the burden of increased, to some extent, this will offset the costs down on raw materials and equipment. From fundamental analysis, the lethality of the former are more big. Judging for papermaking enterprise future earnings, in addition to based on the long-term trend of appreciation of the yuan, also want to consider the domestic monetary policy and the problems faced by the enterprise itself.

The trends of China's paper industry development in 2012 and 2013, reports that in 2012 China's paper industry downturn in the overall development in 2013, the industry is still in the strategic adjustment, paper consumption market capacity overall growth this year, but growth will slow, market competition intensified. Industry will start a new round of reshuffle, backward elimination speed, small business merger, acquisition and reorganization of big companies, will become the industry optimization development important action.

Consumer life best prospect in papermaking industry

From a performance point of view, due to the previous low base and industry fundamentals to improve, first quarter earnings rebound trend obvious papermaking industry. Preliminary results showed that was published in the current quarter forecast many paper listed companies, the majority of corporate performance year-on-year growth. Chenming paper and sun paper, * ST jincheng net profit year-on-year growth of more than 100%.

Industry analysts said the market capacity will become a part of the future consumer paper industry company performance booster. The classification of the current paper products can be divided into newsprint paper, wrapping paper, life this a few kinds. Viewed from the industry fundamentals, newsprint is currently the most overcapacity; Wrapping paper in corrugated, moderate the boom of white CARDS, gift CARDS); The highest life consumer paper gross margin, performance flexibility. Considering the life belong to the category of consumer goods, consumer paper terminal sales prices are up rigid, if the cost is reduced, even if the returns on flat, save the cost will also pose a positive influence to the company's profits.

Orient securities believes that the poor in the boom of large paper 2012, domestic household paper industry giant, harvest quite abundant. Hengan international and vader successive annual report different from paper industry decline in overall performance, revenue and net profit respectively. The personage inside course of study thinks, in recent years, increasing social demand for consumer life paper, use is becoming more and more widely, in recent years, a surge of baby and adult diapers when the market is a vivid example. Investment advice to focus on consumer good life paper listed companies.

Source: the China securities journal